It’s Oscar time once again, and what would that time be without a little speculation on who will take home the coveted little gold guys?

It seems like I say this every year, but once again, I’ve seen so few of the candidates, that I would be woefully ill-equipped to make a decision based on seeing the films in their entirety. So with that in mind, I take hold of the only format that affords me enough time to make an even minutely-informed opinion – the trailers. Below you will see my predictions for who will win, as well as my personal preferences of who should win. Let’s speculate together, shall we?

UPDATE: The actual winners have been added. Still haven’t gotten the 100% correct, but not bad this year! 22 out of 24 is my best score to date! Haven’t graded all the student predictions, but odds are, I held my title for another year. Until next year, everyone!

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BEST PICTURE
Who Will Probably Win: 12 Years a Slave
Actual Winner: 12 Years a Slave

This is going to be a close category this year, with several strong contenders to take the trophy. But, in trying to weigh in the politics and historical tendencies of the Academy, it seems like 12 Years a Slave will hang onto the win. It’s already a close race, but the Academy tends to lean toward films it feels have significance, specifically if they’re connected to a weighty issue – and this film fits the bill. Not to mention the Academy does not favor Science Fiction films for Best Picture. (Still bitter at Annie Hall over Star Wars.) Don’t get me wrong, 12 Years a Slave is deserving on all levels, but in a close race, you have to look for the potential distinguishers. That said, I won’t be  surprised if Gravity pulls out the win.

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Cuaron previously won the “Best Harry Potter Director” award at the nonexistent Fanboy Awards.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will Probably Win: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
Actual Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

It’s rare to see a Best Picture / Best Director split, but this year looks to be one of those years. (Unless Gravity pulls the rug out from under 12 Years a Slave.) I give a shout out to my hometown director, Alexander Payne, but even he has to acknowledge that this just isn’t his year. Cuaron has some seriously quality films under his belt, including Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Y Tu Mamâ Tambiên, and Children of Eden. But in this case, it comes down to the fact that Cuaron’s latest film just left people sitting in the theatre in awe saying “how the heck did they do that?” (Even at the shots in the trailer.) Way back when I first heard he was making a picture called Gravity with very few details being released, people were eagerly awaiting the end product. It looks like Cuaron should now eagerly be awaiting hearing his name called on Oscar night.

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Look to see this face if Adams pulls the upset.

BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Probably Win: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Who I Want to Win: Amy Adams
Actual Winner: Cate Blanchett

Here’s the category I most want to be wrong about.  No offense to Cate Blanchett, I’m sure she gave an inspired performance in Woody Allen’s latest “my life’s a hot mess” movie, but Amy Adams is due.  The woman has been in more Oscar-nominated films and roles in the past few years than anyone else I can think of, but still doesn’t have an Oscar of her own.  Blanchett has one. In fact, so does every other nominee in this category.  So although the trends seem to be pointing toward Blanchett…. I really want to be wrong here and see Adams tearfully overwhelmed that finally after years of being the bridesmaid, she gets to be Oscar’s bride.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Probably Win: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyer’s Club
Actual Winner: Jared Leto

Talk about a role that gets the attention of the voting community.  When people have to second guess who it is that’s actually playing a role, you know you’ve got a winner. Leto said something in an interview to the effect that he knew he had to play this role, like it was calling to him.  My guess is it was simply repeating the word “Oscar” over and over.

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Looking to ease the pain of not winning Best Picture, Gravity is going to sweep up in a lot of other areas.  Not that it isn’t completely deserving in this regard. Those sweeping vistas of space, the use of contrast in the emptiness of space with a single astronaut drifting about, it’s a very deserving category to win in.  In terms of the other nominees, The Grandmaster brings back that Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon meets The Matrix visual style that’s been done so many times before, Inside Llewyn Davis looks to fit in nicely with the Coen’s other films at being visually elegant, but not wow-worthy, Nebraska is unconventionally shot in black and white, but The Artist already did that for a more content-relevant reason, and Prisoners…. well, not having seen it I can only assume it does things no one has even thought of doing because otherwise it kind of showed up out of the blue in this category. Gravity should, and will float away with this category. And for Visual Effects – ditto. The others have been done before (in fact, most are sequels), this is spectacle based in realism, that leaves the audience questioning what’s real and what isn’t. And that’s the equation for Oscar gold.

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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN & BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Who Will Probably Win: The Great Gatsby
Actual Winner: The Great Gatsby

What can I say, I love the work that Baz Luhrmann and company do. It’s such a vibrant, hyper-realism look and feel to everything that no matter what the content, you can’t help but just soak in the ambiance.  I even found myself forgetting the film was based on a book because it all just seemed so outlandishly bold that it had to be original. Normally the way to pick the winner in Costume Design is to choose the period piece. The problem this go round is that they’re ALL period pieces. So in that case, the tie-breaker goes to the one with the boldest period, and a Baz Luhrmann 20s beats an authentic 70s any day.

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In space, no one can hear…. well anything, really. It’s a vacuum. But if Joss Whedon’s backing down from the choice of “silence in space” on his show Firefly when making the movie Serenity taught us anything, it’s that audiences don’t want authentic, they want immersive. Therefore the team on Gravity was faced with the task of creating it all, and in many cases, using sound to ground an otherwise intentionally-adrift bit of storytelling.

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BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Who Will Probably Win: Get a Horse!
Actual Winner: Mr. Hublot

Disney looks to take back-to-back Oscars for the Short Film (Animated) category following Paperman‘s win last year. Get a Horse! is a throwback to Mickey Mouse cartoons of yore, and apparently fully embraces the benefits of 3D movie-watching. Add to that the fact that it was placed in front of the obvious front-runner for best feature-length animated film, and you’ve got a recipe for a lot people knowing the film.  Based on the trailers, Feral had a more interesting animation style, and Mr. Hublot had a very cool 3D-animated look to it, but I’m not sure they can take down the popularity of the Mouse House on this one.

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I love movie scores.  A good score can carry a film way further emotionally than so many of the other elements. If you ever get a chance to watch a scene from a movie without the music behind it, you’ll see what I’m talking about. Now, I love John Williams, but it seems like the man is just automatically guaranteed a nomination, with little chance of securing the win. Desplat won last year with The Artist, so it’s too soon for him, Butler & Palett’s music for Her fit perfectly with the quirky nature of the film, but probably won’t garner enough support, and as much as I also love Newman’s work, I would be amazed to see him take it for Saving Mr. Banks. Steven Price is an Oscar newcomer, but his music editing history is pretty notable. He worked on editing music for films such as Batman Begins, The Lord of the Rings movies, and a personal favorite, Scott Pilgrim vs the World. Although I find the score a little repetitive to listen to on its own, it sets the mood perfectly for the film, and should bring Price a little Oscar love.

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CATEGORIES I DON’T HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON:

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Her
Actual Winner: Her

Spike Jonze is a great storyteller – make no bones about it. Whatever else the film is, whatever other categories it falls short on, this one might be where it ekes out a win.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – 12 Years a Slave
Actual Winner: 12 Years a Slave

It’s rare for a film to take Best Picture and not win in any other categories. I’m going to throw this one in their camp to help prop up a potential Best Picture win.

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BEST FOREIGN FILM - The Great Beauty
Actual Winner: The Great Beauty

Shot in the dark here. Had some of the better looking camera work in the trailer, and that super-artsy feel that gives a certain allure to foreign films.

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BEST DOCUMENTARY – 20 Feet from Stardom
Actual Winner: 20 Feet from Stardom

Frankly the only upbeat nominee in the bunch. I’m voting for it simply because it’s the only one that doesn’t make me hate the crappy state of the world. Could go to The Act of Killing, but, again, that one is depressing.

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Actual Winner: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Take one super-old lady, add an overtly-charming sense of optimism, mix in a little piano-playing, add the fact that she’s a Holocaust survivor, and multiply the fact that she recently passed away, and you can just lock my personal vote in for the win.  I could be wrong, but at this point, if there’s any justice in the universe, I won’t be.

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BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) – Helium
Actual Winner: Helium

It’s a film about a sick kid in the hospital. Add some cool visual effects to the heartwarmingness, and I’m willing to say it might beat out the competition.

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BEST FILM EDITING – Captain Phillips
Actual Winner: Gravity

I really don’t have any idea on this one. All are valid options. But this might be one category that the Academy gives some love to a film not nominated anywhere else, and I still have a soft spot in my heart for Tom Hanks who was sadly not nominated.

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And that, as they say, is that! Let’s see how we do. Last two years I scored 19 out of 24 categories correct. Can I beat my previous scores? Can I beat my students’ scores? We’ll find out tonight!

Well, Oscar time is upon us once again.

It seems like everyone has something to say about their Academy Award predictions, and having, sadly, seen so few of this year’s nominees, I don’t really have a lot to throw behind my predictions. However, I have seen the trailers for all of the nominees, so here’s my trailer-based predictions for this year’s Oscars. (A * denotes my selection for my class competition.)

UPDATE: I have added the Actual Winners as they are announced, and if different than my predictions, my response.

My accuracy rating for this year: 19 out of 24 categories correct. (80%) Not my best, not my worst. A special congratulations to Juan in 2nd Hour, and Gabriella and Briana in 3rd Hour for most correct predictions in the film classes.

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Get ready to hear this title and an excerpt from the score over and over and over...

BEST PICTURE
Who Will Probably Win: The Artist *
Who I Think Should Win: The Artist
Actual Winner: The Artist

This thing is a juggernaut. It’s this year’s Return of the King. Based on the trailer, it’s a clever concept for a modern-day film, to play off the films of the silent era. I like that, so I agree.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will Probably Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist *
Who I Think Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actual Winner: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

As much as I’ve heard amazing things about Scorsese’s Hugo, he already has his Oscar, and half of predicting is feeling out the politics of the game. Even Omaha native Alexander Payne already has his Oscar. And Woody Allen… I still haven’t forgiven you for Annie Hall besting Star Wars in 1977. I can’t be the only one who sees that all his characters are simply more attractive actors playing a variation of Woody Allen. Odds are, since the two categories only occasionally split, this one will go to the newcomer, especially with all the buzz around The Artist.

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Dujardin radiates charisma. (Note the visible radiation.)

BEST ACTOR
Who Will Probably Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist *
Who I Think Should Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Actual Winner: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Clooney has his. Pitt has several past noms, but Moneyball is not the film to finally clinch it for him. Oldman is amazing, but I don’t think this will carry enough with voters, and really I don’t know that this role is necessarily the one deserving of the Oscar. Demian Bichir gives a stirring performance in the trailer, but again, not known enough to beat down the momentum Dujardin has built up.

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This look seems to say "Between me and Glenn? It won't even be Close."

BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Probably Win: Viola Davis, The Help *
Who I Think Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Actual Winner: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

This is where the Academy will make up for giving Supporting Actress to Penelope Cruz in 2009. Davis’ performance carries the trailer, so I can only imagine it does the same in the film. One might think Glenn Close would get some love with this being her 6th nomination without a win… but I don’t think Albert Nobbs will do it for her. Maybe lucky number 7 will be her winning charm.

Response to Winner: Well… there’s that I guess. Sure Meryl has been nominated 17 times, but she’s also won twice. I mean, Streep does capture Margaret Thatcher quite well, but still. Sounds to me like the Academy is trying to make up for 14 losses with one more win, figuring Davis will be back in the future. That’s Academy politics for you. But maybe I’ll be surprised after watching the full films and agree with the decision. Time will tell.

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It's the year of the vibrant old-timer!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Probably Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners *
Who I Think Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Actual Winner: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

First of all, how the heck did Jonah Hill even get a nomination? Seriously? I could probably sync the audio from the Moneyball trailer to his physical performance in the trailer for Night at the Museum 2 and not even notice. Lame, Academy. Nolte… yeah we’ve all seen the grizzled father/coach character before. You’re an Omaha boy, so I give you props there, but not the prediction. Branagh is great, but nothing award-worthy here. I had to actually double check to make sure Max Von Sydow and Christopher Plummer were not the same person. They both fit the same character type. But based on the trailer, Plummer actually talks in his film, and is one of the major characters, so I have to lean toward him.

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Seriously, I tried to find a picture where Octavia wasn't making this face... no luck.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Probably Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help *
Who I Think Should Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Actual Winner: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Here again, Melissa McCarthy? For an OSCAR nomination? The Academy has traditionally snubbed comedies for its awards, and to see a nominee whose stand-out moments in the trailer include not being sure whether gas escaping from her body was a belch or fart, and talking about staging their own fight club…. it makes me think they need to be more selective in how they include comedies. Although Bejo gives a cutesy performance, I think Spencer was a very enjoyable element of the trailer for The Help. She hugged people a lot. She gets my vote.

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Maybe if he wins, he can use some of that fame and fortune to see a chiropractor.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Who Will Probably Win: Rango *
Who I Think Should Win: Chico & Rita
Actual Winner: Rango

Sadly Pixar released its weakest film to date this year (seriously, Mater is the Jar Jar Binks of the Pixar universe), so with only Cars 2 representing, it opened the field for others. Seems like the buzz goes to Rango, although I’m a little over Johnny Depp, so that puts a little bad taste in my mouth. Really I thought the European contenders were more interesting in their style, although I can’t vouch for the storylines. I had no idea what was happening in Cat in Paris since the trailer was in French, but the animation style of Chico & Rita was the most interesting.

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This poster makes it look like she wants to leave her husband because of his horrible singing.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Who Will Probably Win: A Separation, Iran *
Who I Think Should Win: A Separation, Iran
Actual Winner: A Separation, Iran

The trailer for Bullhead was extremely weird. It had that “art for the sake of art” feel about it. Footnote looks like it would be the most enjoyable to watch, but that’s not enough to win an Oscar. In Darkness is about the Holocaust, which makes it the best contender for an upset. Monsier Lazhar is about a teacher, and although I am one, we’ve all seen the “new teacher steps in and turns the class around” film before, so it’s nothing new or noteworthy. Not only did A Separation also get a Screenplay nod, it comes from a country which has a lot of global issues surrounding it.

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Disclaimer: Kids, don't try this at home!

BEST ART DIRECTION & BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Who Will Probably Win: Hugo *
Who I Think Should Win: Hugo
Actual Winner: Hugo

These two categories are where the Academy will and should show Hugo some love. The visuals in the trailer were stunning, and the look and feel it establishes really throws back to the early 1900s they were going for.

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Despite this frightening optical illusion, it's really an elegant film of dancing!

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Who Will Probably Win: Pina *
Who I Think Should Win: Pina
Actual Winner: Undefeated

Documentaries always seem so serious or depressing, but Pina has a unique and refreshing approach with all its fancy dancing. It had the only trailer that didn’t make me feel like I was watching the news.

Response to Winner: Really? I thought the “inner-city football team with a crappy record that turns it around to grow not only as a team, but as people” storyline was already played out ever since Remember the Titans. Apparently the concept still has a few more awards left in it. I’m disappointed to see something so unconventional and unique as Pina leaving empty handed to an almost cliche idea.

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Ah the love between a boy and his horse... the PG kind of love.

BEST SOUND EDITING AND MIXING
Who Will Probably Win: Hugo
Who I Think Should Win: War Horse *
Actual Winner: Hugo

Political predictions would tell us that Hugo is going to pick up some sympathy nods in categories to compensate for The Artist sweeping everything else. Sound may be a place that this happens. However, I’d wager War Horse has a good shot with all its battle scenes and that sweeping John Williams score. Transformers, although cool sounding, has already had its day, and the others just don’t have enough going on… although Drive could be a potential dark horse in sound editing.

Response to Winner: I called it, but regrettably voted otherwise for the class competition. Again, I haven’t seen Hugo, so I’ll be curious to see if the sound truly is all that amazing comparatively, or if this was just a “sorry about Best Picture” consolation prize.

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Rumor has it Sirkis based his performance for Caesar on the salad of the same name. #untruefacts

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Who Will Probably Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes *
Who I Think Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Actual Winner: Hugo

One word – Caesar. That will do it. Sirkis didn’t get his acting nom, but the effects still sell it. Transformers has been done, Real Steel is a rehash of Transformers, Hugo wasn’t effects-heavy enough, and HPDH2 was heavy enough, but it is the 8th film in the series.

Response to Winner: Well, color me surprised. I figured the motion capture work in Rise… was good enough to take it. Apparently Hugo must be the most technically amazing movie ever (at least this year), as it’s sweeping the technical categories.

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The epitome of book worm.

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Who Will Probably Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore *
Who I Think Should Win: A Morning Stroll
Actual Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Fantastic… Lessmore is definitely the most solid and comfortable choice, with its quality 3D work and clever looking story elements. The trailer for Morning Stroll, albeit quite abbreviated since it’s a trailer for a short film, had the most unique animation style of all the nominees. I would have liked to see it shake things up with that crazy multi-dimensional chicken.

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With only 6 days to live, this guy has some stuff to blow up and a tuba to play.

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Who Will Probably Win: Tuba Atlantic *
Who I Think Should Win: Tuba Atlantic
Actual Winner: The Shore

Tuba Atlantic was the only one of these trailers to make me actually laugh and want to watch it. Time Freak looks quirky, but in a wannabe-Groundhog Day kind of way that seemed far too amateur for the Oscars. The others just didn’t stand out enough in my mind.

Response to Winner: To be fair, The Shore did have a pretty solid trailer, and had sort of an Academy-worthy feel to it, so I don’t really feel opposed to this winner, I just liked Tuba Atlantic better – probably because I have a soft spot for dying old people in movies.

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Frankly I think Jason Segel is a little of both.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Who Will Probably Win: “Man or Muppet”, from The Muppets *
Who I Think Should Win: “Man or Muppet”, from The Muppets
Actual Winner: “Man or Muppet”, from The Muppets

I saw the music videos for both these songs, and “Man or Muppet” definitely got stuck in my head the most. Plus it had Jim Parsons playing the human version of a Muppet, which is pretty accurate and hilarious. I’m a little sad these songs won’t be performed, as both would have a pretty interesting stage presence. Frankly I was just happy Randy Newman had no chance to win another Oscar this year.

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You're going to hear excerpts from this a lot as people walk up to the stage.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Who Will Probably Win: The Aritst *
Who I Think Should Win: War Horse
Actual Winner: The Artist

I’m a collector of movie scores. The orchestral music underneath the film is what sells the emotional state to me, so this category is probably one of my favorites. It’s also extremely tricky for me to call. Williams is against himself in the category for Tintin and War Horse, but Tintin didn’t hook me. Hugo isn’t Shore’s best, and he’s won plenty before. Tinker had a really cool unique sound to it, sort of a blues meets The Matrix vibe to it, but this is a little offbeat for the Academy. The Artist brings a unique composer with a pleasant sound, and in light of Williams’ multitude of Oscars already on his shelf, will probably take it. War Horse was the most moving of all the pieces I heard, and I’m a Williams fan, but Johnny-boy has his trophies, time for someone else to enjoy the moment.

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CATEGORIES I DON’T HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON:

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Midnight in Paris *
Actual Winner: Midnight in Paris
Alright Allen, you can have it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – The Descendants *
Actual Winner: The Descendants
Same goes for you Payne & Co.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN – The Artist *
Actual Winner: The Artist
Usually goes to a period piece, but they’re all period pieces. Shot in the dark here, could go to Hugo.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – Saving Face *
Actual Winner: Saving Face
Again, sad, serious documentaries, but this one seems to have a stronger emotional tug.

BEST MAKEUP – The Iron Lady*
Actual Winner: The Iron Lady
Here again, HP has had its day, and although Albert Nobbs turned Glenn Close into a man… well… she was halfway there on her own.

BEST FILM EDITING – The Artist *
Actual Winner: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Could go any which way, but I’m going to throw this on The Artist sweep pile.

Response to Winner: Seems like Oscar likes the edgier stuff in this category. After Social Network last year, and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo this year, I’ll definitely be looking for the edgier piece in next year’s predictions.

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So there you have it. My trailer-based predictions. Maybe it will help you with your own office pool or class competition, maybe it just gave you something to read. At any rate, tune in to the Oscars and see what shakes down!